Jun 2–8, 2025

Stocks

Market movements:
The week closed with moderate gains for headline U.S. indices. The S&P 500 (+0.5% w/w) ticked higher. The Nasdaq Composite (+0.7% w/w) led the advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.2% w/w) lagged but still finished up. Markets moved on a mix of earnings and macro signals. Moreover, rotation into tech and AI names powered much of the upside. However, breadth remained thin. Therefore, headline strength masked internal dispersion.

Leadership and breadth:
Technology and AI-related suppliers were the clearest leaders. Semiconductor stocks rallied after several supply checks pointed to durable demand. Meanwhile, cyclical sectors showed mixed results. Consumer discretionary names were uneven across sub-sectors. At the same time, financials tracked modest yield moves and were generally flat. In short, big tech again carried much of the market’s weight.

Notable single-name moves:
A few large-cap stocks drove the tape. Nvidia (+~3% w/w) extended its run as AI demand narratives persisted. Microsoft (+~1.8% w/w) showed steady cloud trends and outperformed peers. Apple (+~0.6% w/w) traded in line with hardware cadence and services resilience. Conversely, a major apparel retailer trimmed guidance and fell sharply, which pressured parts of consumer discretionary. Thus, concentrated winners offset certain sector-level disappointment.

Fixed-income:
Treasury yields were mixed but stable on balance. The 10-year Treasury (~4.1% area) finished the week slightly lower on average. Lower real yields provided support for long-duration growth names. At the same time, intraday yield swings increased around economic releases. Therefore, bond-market volatility remained a key theme for equity risk premia.

Precious metals, industrial metals

Precious-metals response:
Precious metals posted firm gains. Gold (+~1.5% w/w) rose on lower real yields and safe-haven flows. Investors bought bullion as a hedge against policy uncertainty. Silver (+~2.8% w/w) outperformed gold in percent terms due to its industrial linkage plus safe-haven demand. ETF inflows added to the mechanical bid. Consequently, bullion acted as a portfolio hedge during episodic risk-off moves.

Industrial metals:
Industrial metals were more mixed and less directional. Copper (flat to modest up w/w) showed limited net movement. Aluminium (flat w/w) also traded in a range. China demand signals produced short-lived spikes. Meanwhile, supply-side news remained relatively muted. Thus, industrial metals lacked the clear momentum of the precious complex and stayed closely tied to growth data.

Energy and commodities:
Oil prices showed modest volatility, rallying on supply chatter and easing on demand concerns. Agricultural commodities moved on weather and logistic updates. Commodity ETFs had small net flows. In sum, commodities reflected a mix of idiosyncratic supply and broader cyclical themes without producing a singular dominant story.

Crypto Asset

Bitcoin:
Bitcoin (BTC, +~2% w/w) recorded a modest weekly gain. Macro tailwinds, including slightly lower real yields and steady ETF flows, supported BTC. On days when equities rallied, BTC tended to move alongside them. Conversely, BTC sold off quicker on intraday risk-off swings. Overall, BTC functioned as a high-beta risk barometer for market risk appetite.

Ethereum:
Ethereum (ETH, +~6% w/w) outperformed BTC during the week. Staking flows and Layer-2 transaction growth supported demand. In addition, derivatives positioning showed tighter funding spreads for ETH. As a result, ETH attracted both speculative and strategic allocations and led parts of the altcoin complex.

XRP:
XRP (XRP, +~3% w/w) gained on partnership headlines and renewed utility narratives. Volume spikes were episodic, but sentiment improved. Traders treated XRP as a targeted, tactical exposure rather than a broad market driver. Therefore, gains were measured and did not create outsized market leadership.

Solana:
Solana (SOL, +~5% w/w) advanced on project-level news and developer-focused updates. The token’s moves were more volatile than BTC or ETH, and short-term traders amplified intraday swings. Nevertheless, SOL’s ecosystem momentum drew fresh attention from opportunistic buyers.

Cardano:
Cardano (ADA, +~2% w/w) edged up as protocol upgrades and developer activity continued. ADA’s move was gradual, supported by a steady increase in on-chain utility metrics. Institutional participation remained limited relative to BTC and ETH, so ADA’s gains were structural rather than speculative.

Crypto market context:
Broadly, crypto gains were driven by macro tailwinds and selective on-chain catalysts. ETF flows and institutional interest mattered most for BTC and ETH. At the same time, token-specific news created episodic outperformance across altcoins. Thus, the crypto complex showed risk-on characteristics but remained sensitive to macro headlines and liquidity.

US economic data

Key prints and themes:
The week included a mix of regional manufacturing reports and sentiment indicators. PMIs offered a patchwork picture. Some regions showed expansion, while others signaled deceleration. Retail and services indicators suggested pockets of resilience. Hence, the data did not point to a clear acceleration in underlying activity.

Inflation dynamics:
Inflation components remained mixed. Shelter and services costs continued to be comparatively sticky. Conversely, goods inflation showed some signs of cooling in a few categories. The heterogeneous inflation profile kept policy uncertainty high. Therefore, markets continued to price the Fed’s path as data-dependent and conditional.

Labour-market signals:
Labor metrics presented early signs of moderation in internals. Initial jobless claims saw sporadic increases in some weeks. Payroll internals hinted at a slightly lower hiring intensity in certain segments. Yet headline unemployment remained near long-run lows. Taken together, these signals suggested a gradual loosening rather than a sudden deterioration.

Market reaction to data:
The mixed dataset encouraged a tactical preference for growth with hedges. Lower real yields on certain days helped push up long-duration equities. At the same time, precious metals attracted flows as a policy-risk hedge. Traders therefore balanced exposure across equities, bonds, metals, and selective crypto.

Outlook for the coming week

Calendar and catalysts:
Next week’s main releases include national retail sales and updated industrial production figures. Retail sales will serve as a direct read on consumer resilience. Industrial production will give additional insight into manufacturing momentum. Both prints can move rate expectations and either broaden or narrow equity participation.

Earnings and corporate drivers:
A range of consumer and industrial companies will report earnings. Logistics and restaurant names are important near-term demand indicators. Positive surprises in those sectors could broaden the market’s rally beyond mega-cap tech. Conversely, narrowly disappointing results could tighten breadth and push flows back into defensive names.

Tactical asset guidance:
Tactically, prefer selective exposure to high-quality growth and AI-related franchises while maintaining hedges. Gold remains a useful tactical hedge against yield surprises. For crypto, retain BTC and ETH as core positions and limit sizing in higher-volatility altcoins. Rebalance after major data prints to control event-driven risk.

Risks and triggers:
An upside inflation surprise would likely lift yields and pressure long-duration growth. That outcome could reverse recent equity gains quickly. Geopolitical shocks or trade disruptions could also trigger abrupt risk-off episodes. Conversely, clear signs of labour-market weakening and softer CPI would push forward rate-cut expectations and favor risk assets and metals.