Sep 22–28 2025

Stocks

Weekly market direction:
U.S. large-cap equities finished the week modestly higher. The S&P 500 (+~0.8% w/w), the Nasdaq Composite (+~1.2% w/w) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+~0.9% w/w) all closed the period in positive territory. Early in the week, markets priced the lingering impact of the Fed’s mid-September policy shift. Later, flows concentrated into a small group of mega-caps, which lifted headline indexes while breadth stayed narrow. Yahoo Finanzen

Leadership and rotation:
Tech and AI-linked names led the advance. Chipmakers and cloud platforms attracted most of the buying. Conversely, value and cyclical sectors lagged overall. Financials traded largely sideways as the yield complex steadied. Energy underperformed as oil eased on inventory and demand cross-currents. The net result was a narrow, leadership-driven tape where a handful of stocks accounted for bulk index gains. Yahoo Finanzen

Notable single-name movers:
Several large technology firms reported upbeat commentary on data-center demand and capex trends. That drove outsized returns for a few suppliers and platforms. Meanwhile, a subset of consumer discretionary stocks weakened after softer sales or cautious guidance. The market’s intra-week swings were therefore dominated by company-specific news rather than a broad macro re-rating.

Short bond note:
The Treasury market absorbed the policy shift and economic data with calm overall. The 10-year Treasury (~4.06% end-week) traded in a narrower band compared with prior weeks. Lower real yields provided a tailwind for long-duration equities. Still, investors remained sensitive to incoming CPI and labour metrics, which could re-open the yield debate quickly.

Precious metals, industrial metals

Precious-metals breakout:
Gold was the clear outperformer in the commodity complex. Gold (+~5–6% w/w) surged to fresh highs as investors sought policy hedges and safe-haven exposure. Silver also rose but lagged gold on a percentage basis. The bullion move reflected both real-yield compression and a heightened demand for inflation-insurance assets. The Guardian+1

Industrial-metals behaviour:
Industrial metals were more muted than precious metals. Copper (flat to +~0.3% w/w) and Aluminium (flat w/w) traded in ranges. Demand signals from major industrial consumers were mixed across the week. As a result, base-metals lacked the decisive bid seen in the gold complex. Logistics and China-related data were the primary short-term influences on price swings.

Energy & commodities:
Oil showed localized volatility on inventory updates and seasonal demand cues. Selected commodity groups reacted to idiosyncratic supply news rather than a single demand story. Overall, the commodity landscape was subordinate to the dominant themes of monetary policy and safe-haven flows.

Crypto Asset

Bitcoin:
Bitcoin (BTC, -~5% w/w) finished the week lower after an early-week retrenchment and episodic profit-taking. The token moved with risk sentiment and saw larger intraday swings than equities. ETF and institutional windows continued to set the liquidity backdrop for BTC, while short-term derivatives flows influenced volatility. Investing.com

Ethereum:
Ethereum (ETH, -~1–2% w/w) underperformed or held roughly steady versus Bitcoin over the period. ETH saw some profit-taking after prior strength. Layer-2 activity and staking interest remained constructive on a structural basis, but that did not prevent short-term weakness driven by broader risk-off flows. Investing.com

XRP:
XRP (XRP, -~1% w/w) drifted slightly lower. Volume spikes appeared around partnership or product news, but they did not trigger sustained moves. Traders treated XRP as a selective tactical exposure rather than a drive for broad market direction.

Solana:
Solana (SOL, +~2% w/w) posted modest gains on a mix of project announcements and developer updates. However, SOL’s performance was more episodic and sensitive to on-chain developments and liquidity rotations.

Cardano:
Cardano (ADA, +~3% w/w) moved higher on steady developer progress and measured staking inflows. ADA’s advance was gradual and structural rather than speculative, reflecting ongoing protocol upgrades.

Crypto context:
Overall crypto flows were dominated by macro drivers this week. The angle of Fed policy, real-yield moves and institutional ETF activity determined the broad risk tone. Token-level catalysts produced episodic outperformance, but macro liquidity was the primary engine.

US economic data

Policy backdrop:
The Fed’s September easing move remained the central macro story for markets. Policymakers signalled a cautious data-dependent path after the mid-September rate decision, and markets continued to price additional easing later in the year. That shift materially affected cross-asset pricing, notably real yields and precious metals demand. federalreserve.gov

Labour-market signals:
Weekly initial jobless claims fell to about 218,000, implying a still-tight labour market even as some internals suggest moderation. The claims print supported a narrative of gradual cooling rather than abrupt weakness. Policymakers and markets therefore continued to weigh marginal labour signals carefully when projecting the policy path. Reuters

Inflation and price dynamics:
Inflation components remained mixed. Services and shelter continued to show stickiness. Conversely, goods inflation cooled in some categories. The heterogeneous profile kept the Fed data-dependent and left room for debate over the timing and size of further cuts. Markets reacted to each CPI and PPI micro-print with outsized sensitivity given existing uncertainty.

Real-economy reads:
Retail-sales snapshots and regional manufacturing surveys produced a patchwork picture. Consumption remained resilient in services categories, while certain goods segments and inventories pointed to slower momentum. That mixed evidence explained why risk assets could rally on easing bets but still show limited breadth.

Outlook for the coming week

Key data to watch:
Next week’s calendar includes fresh CPI components, retail sales and the usual weekly jobless claims. Each print can re-shape rate expectations. In particular, hotter-than-expected inflation or stronger wage data would lift yields and pressure long-duration names. Conversely, softer prints would reinforce easing expectations and could further support risk assets and bullion.

Corporate calendar and earnings risk:
A set of large-cap suppliers and consumer firms will report. Watch guidance language for capex and inventory signals. Strong top-line and margin commentary could broaden participation beyond a small group of mega-caps. Weak guidance would likely compress breadth and push flows toward defensives and hedges.

Tactical asset views:
Tactically, prefer selective exposure to high-quality growth and AI-beneficiaries where earnings visibility is solid. Retain a meaningful hedge allocation to Gold and short-dated Treasuries given policy uncertainty. In crypto, keep BTC and ETH as core holdings but size them prudently given elevated volatility. Altcoins should be treated as tactical, high-volatility exposures.

Risks and triggers:
The principal upside risk is an unexpected inflation rebound that forces a re-pricing of Fed policy and lifts yields. This would probably rotate performance away from long-duration tech toward cyclical and value sectors. The main downside risk is a sharper slowdown in consumption or a negative earnings surprise that broadens weakness. Operational risks in economic data (delays or large revisions) could also cloud the policy outlook and increase event risk.