Sep 29–Oct 5, 2025

Stocks

Weekly market direction:
U.S. large-cap indices ended the week with modest gains as investors balanced a continued rally in megacap tech against political noise in Washington. The S&P 500 (+~1.0% w/w), the Nasdaq Composite (+~1.5% w/w), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+~0.7% w/w) all closed the period higher, and yet the advance remained narrow because a handful of mega-cap names carried most of the upside. Markets therefore showed momentum, but breadth metrics lagged, which kept many portfolio managers cautious about rotating deeply into cyclicals.

Sector leadership and rotation:
Technology and AI-linked names continued to lead, and semiconductors and cloud infrastructure stocks were among the strongest performers. Meanwhile, financials and energy were mixed; regional banks and commodity-sensitive groups underperformed at times, whereas consumer-staple and defensive names provided ballast. Because investors remained aware of tactical risks — notably data delays and a potential government shutdown — rotation into lower-volatility sectors was a recurring theme later in the week.

Notable single-name movers:
Several large-cap tech platforms and chip suppliers posted gains after upbeat guidance or encouraging capex commentary, notably Nvidia, Microsoft , Apple , and Broadcom. At the same time, a handful of consumer discretionary and industrial names underperformed on softer forward commentary and inventory concerns, notably Nike and Caterpillar. Thus, while headline indices moved higher, many mid- and small-cap groups stayed range-bound, and that divergence merits attention from risk managers in the coming days.

Fixed-income snapshot:
Treasury yields generally eased during the week as markets digested the Fed’s recent policy pivot and reacted to a mix of private data used to fill the gap left by delayed government releases. The 10-year Treasury (~4.06% end-week) traded in a narrower band on balance, and lower real yields supported multiple expansion in long-duration growth names even as traders kept a close eye on upcoming Fed speakers and the September FOMC minutes.

Precious metals, industrial metals

Gold and safe-haven flows:
Precious metals were among the week’s clearest beneficiaries of elevated uncertainty. Gold (+~4–5% w/w) rallied to fresh record highs as the U.S. government shutdown and delayed official data increased demand for policy hedges and real-assets exposure, and silver also strengthened in sympathy. The rally reflected both lower real rates and a renewed buyer base made up of hedging and institutional flows.

Industrial metals:
Industrial metals showed more mixed behavior. Copper (flat to +~0.3% w/w) and Aluminium (flat w/w) traded in ranges, and market participants pointed to a patchwork of demand signals from China and Europe. Thus, while the precious-metals complex found a clear bid from risk-off positioning, base metals waited for firmer economic reads before breaking out.

Energy and commodities:
Oil prices and energy equities were sensitive to inventory reports and demand cues, but overall they lagged the defensive bid into bullion. Commodity markets remained reactive to headline risks — including the shutdown and supply chatter — rather than forming a unified thematic move during the week.

Crypto Asset

Bitcoin:
Bitcoin (BTC, +~8–10% w/w) surged sharply and hit a new all-time high by the end of the week, driven by sizable ETF inflows, a softer dollar, and increased institutional participation. The breakout to roughly six-figure-plus levels reinforced crypto’s growing correlation with risk assets on the upside, even as episodes of intraday volatility persisted. Bitcoin’s leadership this week was a clear technical and flow-driven story.

Ethereum:
Ethereum (ETH, +~6–8% w/w) outperformed many altcoins, helped by stronger staking inflows, healthy Layer-2 activity, and constructive derivatives positioning. ETH’s technicals turned bullish on weekly and daily horizons, and the token benefitted from whales and institutions adding strategic exposure amid broader risk-on flows.

XRP:
XRP (XRP, +~2–3% w/w) moved higher in a measured fashion as payment-rail narratives and episodic partnership announcements supported buying. Volume spikes accompanied specific headlines, however XRP’s move was more tactical than market-leading and liquidity profiles remained uneven across venues.

Solana:
Solana (SOL, +~6–7% w/w) advanced on renewed developer activity and several project launches that drew attention to throughput-edge use cases. That said, SOL’s volatility was higher than BTC and ETH, and intraday swings were significant; position sizing was therefore crucial for short-term traders.

Cardano:
Cardano (ADA, +~3–4% w/w) posted steady gains as protocol upgrades and measured staking flows attracted longer-term accumulation rather than speculative parabolic moves. ADA’s performance underlined the ongoing bifurcation between large-cap crypto liquidity and smaller altcoin idiosyncrasies.

US economic data

Data blackout and policy implications:
The dominant macro story this week was that a partial U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1, delayed several routine economic releases — most notably the September jobs report — and forced market participants to lean more heavily on private-sector or regional data. Because the Fed and investors prize timely labor and price information, the interruption increased uncertainty about near-term policy sequencing and raised the value of alternative data sets while official series were offline.

Inflation and labor signals:
Even before the shutdown, policymakers were parsing mixed inflation and labor prints; some services components remained sticky, whereas some goods categories cooled. Given the data gaps this week, the market focused on private payroll trackers and regional surveys that hinted at softer hiring intensity in certain sectors but not a systemic collapse. In short, the picture was one of gradual moderation rather than a sudden downturn, although the missing BLS release left a notable blind spot for calibrating Fed timing.

Market reaction to macro uncertainty:
Consequently, yields compressed and gold and bitcoin rallied as portfolio managers bought protection or reallocations into real assets. Equities, meanwhile, rallied around strong mega-cap tech narratives and AI demand, but the expansion remained narrow. Investors therefore balanced risk-taking with elevated attention to event risk and headline noise.

Outlook — coming week

Calendar and event risks:
Key items to watch include the delayed September jobs release (timing depends on shutdown resolution), regional manufacturing and services surveys, and Fed commentary including the release of the September FOMC minutes. Corporate earnings will continue to provide company-specific catalysts, and retail/transportation names reporting next week may give practical reads on consumer momentum. Because a shutdown adds uncertainty to the data pipeline, each release will likely have outsized market impact.

Tactical views:
Tactically, favor high-quality growth and dominant AI beneficiaries while maintaining tactical hedges. Gold and short-dated Treasuries are effective defensive allocations in the current mix, and Bitcoin can act as a complementary risk-on hedge for portfolios that already have overweight tech exposure. In crypto, favor liquid large-cap tokens (BTC, ETH) for core exposure and size altcoins conservatively given elevated intraday volatility. Use tight position-sizing rules and explicit stop frameworks because headline-driven reversals can be swift.

Key risks and scenario planning:
Upside risk: an unexpected inflation read that re-accelerates services prices could push markets to re-price monetary normalization, lifting yields and favoring cyclical and value sectors. Downside risk: a prolonged shutdown combined with weak private indicators could push forward the case for more aggressive easing and cause mark-to-market pressure on cyclicals. Geopolitical events or large post-earnings guidance misses could also trigger rapid breadth deterioration.

Three market quotes from professionals

Fed caution: As Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted, cutting too fast risks rekindling inflation pressures — “cutting rates too quickly could elevate inflation risks,” a reminder that the Fed’s path will remain data dependent.

Market resilience: Analysts noted that despite political headwinds, many strategists still expect the broader rally to continue for now: “most market experts believe the shutdown will not derail the market rally,” underscoring the market’s reliance on momentum and earnings strength.

Shutdown pressure: On the political front, administration commentary underscored the human and economic risks if talks stall: White House warnings that “layoffs will start if shutdown talks ‘going nowhere’” heightened the sense that a protracted funding gap would matter to growth and confidence.