Jun 23–29, 2025

Stocks

Market movements:
U.S. equity indices finished the week with modest gains. The S&P 500 (+1.0% w/w) rose. The Nasdaq Composite (+1.6% w/w) outperformed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.5% w/w) advanced more modestly. Strength was concentrated in a set of mega-cap names and AI-related suppliers. Early-week weakness was reversed as earnings met cautious expectations. The tape showed selective breadth improvement later in the period.

Sector dynamics:
Tech and communications services led the advance. Semiconductors continued to benefit as hardware demand proved stickier than feared. Financials and energy lagged on margin and commodity considerations. Consumer-facing sectors were mixed depending on company reporting. Overall, the market favored durable growth stories and quality names, while cyclicals waited for clearer demand signals.

Single-name highlights:
Nvidia (+~5% w/w) and its ecosystem suppliers enjoyed continued inflows. Microsoft (+~3% w/w) and cloud names also outperformed. A major e-commerce name reported lower-than-expected margin guidance and its stock declined. That trimmed some sector-level gains. At the same time, transport and logistics firms posted mixed results, giving a clearer read on freight conditions.

Fixed-income:
Treasury yields moved slightly lower across much of the curve. The 10-year Treasury (~3.95–4.00% area) eased modestly on a balance of data and positioning. Lower yields supported equity valuations, especially for long-duration growth names. However, the bond market remained sensitive to inflation prints and Fed commentary, so volatility around releases was higher than usual.

Precious metals, industrial metals

Precious-metals:
Gold (+~2.2% w/w) strengthened as real yields compressed further. Flows into ETFs and safe-haven demand added to the rally. Silver (+~3.5% w/w) outperformed in percent terms due to its industrial linkage and safe-haven flows. Precious metals benefited from the weaker real-yield backdrop and the data-driven uncertainty.

Industrial metals:
Copper (slight up w/w) showed renewed interest from traders monitoring Chinese demand. Aluminium (flat w/w) had limited directional momentum. In general, base metals required clearer industrial demand signals to sustain material rallies. Absent that, their moves were episodic and tied to specific news.

Energy and commodities:
Oil saw moderate volatility tied to inventory releases and regional supply chatter. Agricultural commodities reacted to weather patterns and logistical issues. Commodity ETFs registered balanced flows. Overall, the commodity complex reflected a patchwork of idiosyncratic drivers.

Crypto Asset

Bitcoin:
Bitcoin (BTC, +~4% w/w) posted a stronger weekly gain than in prior weeks. Improved ETF flows and macro risk-on helped lift BTC. Institutional demand in OTC markets was visible for the first time in several sessions. BTC’s relative stability encouraged some strategic accumulation.

Ethereum:
Ethereum (ETH, +~10% w/w) was a standout performer. Stronger staking inflows and increasing Layer-2 activity built momentum. Futures markets showed increased open interest and tightening funding spreads. ETH’s leadership contributed to a rotation into larger altcoins in certain sessions.

XRP:
XRP (XRP, +~4% w/w) continued to gain on partnership and utility-based narratives. Volume spikes accompanied targeted announcements, but the token’s broader rally was still tethered to macro sentiment.

Solana:
Solana (SOL, +~8% w/w) jumped on release schedules for several DeFi projects and improved developer activity. The token’s move was more pronounced than many peers, creating elevated short-term volatility.

Cardano:
Cardano (ADA, +~3% w/w) climbed modestly as upgrade progress continued. Developer engagement and modest staking inflows supported steady accumulation rather than speculative spikes.

Crypto context:
The week’s crypto rally was more broad-based than in prior weeks. Macro tailwinds and token-specific developments combined to create stronger flows. Institutional interest appeared to widen, helping lift several larger tokens.

US economic data

Inflation trends:
Inflation print components persisted with heterogeneity. Shelter and services were the less-resilient categories. Goods inflation cooled further in some measures. The mixed profile preserved debate about the timing of policy adjustments.

Labour indicators:
Hiring data showed modest softness in some internals. Weekly jobless claims were a bit higher in patches. However, the headline labour market remained tight compared with historical norms. Markets interpreted these cues as a gradual cooling rather than a sudden weakening.

Consumption & industry:
Retail sales were mixed across categories, indicating selective spending patterns. Manufacturing showed modest strength in some regional surveys. Inventory digestion continued in a few sectors. Overall, demand was steady but not accelerating strongly.

Market reaction:
Given the data, lower real yields and strong corporate beats supported equities and precious metals. Crypto also benefited from the eased yield backdrop and increased flows. Yet volatility around data releases reminded traders to keep nimble positions.

Outlook for the coming week

Calendar & catalysts:
Next week includes the next slew of PMI data, consumer sentiment, and corporate reports. PMI prints will be watched for momentum in both manufacturing and services. Consumer sentiment will show whether spending resilience is intact.

Earnings to watch:
Retailers and industrial firms will deliver results that inform the near-term demand outlook. Logistics reports remain a key gauge of global trade and inventory cycles.

Tactical takeaways:
Continue to emphasize high-quality growth and AI beneficiaries. Keep a modest gold allocation for hedge purposes. For crypto, overweight ETH tactically given recent on-chain metrics, but size positions carefully given volatility.

Risks:
An unexpected inflation uptick would lift yields and pressure tech. Broader-than-expected labour weakness could throttle consumer demand and push policy easing sooner. Geopolitical or trade turbulence could also trigger rapid risk-off dynamics.