Oct 20–26, 2025

Stocks

CPI cooldown lifts US stocks to records. Record highs, broad participation. The three major U.S. equity benchmarks finished the week at fresh records as investors welcomed cooler-than-expected inflation and resilient earnings. S&P 500 (+1.9% w/w), Nasdaq Composite (+2.3% w/w), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+2.2% w/w) all advanced, with Friday’s thrust sealing the gains. Leadership broadened beyond the mega-cap AI cohort as cyclical and value pockets joined the move. Semiconductor strength persisted while autos, industrials, and select financials outperformed into the close.

Earnings pop among notable single names. Positive surprises and thematic headlines created outsized single-stock moves. International Business Machines (IBM) jumped on strong results and a chip-partner headline, ending the week notably higher (~+7.9% on Friday; strong w/w). Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rallied (~+7% Friday; higher w/w), with knock-on gains for memory supplier Micron (MU) (~+5% Friday). Autos were a bright spot: Ford (F) surged on a better-than-expected quarter (~+12% Friday; higher w/w). Meanwhile, large-cap tech sentiment stayed constructive into next week’s mega-cap reports, with Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Meta (META) all in focus.

Sector tone and cross-currents. Technology outperformed on the week as semis and software advanced, while industrials and energy also contributed. Consumer discretionary caught a bid on autos and select platforms. Communication services showed mixed action into META’s coming print cadence; health care and staples lagged marginally. The breadth improvement—paired with new highs—kept risk appetite firm, though rotation remained brisk day-to-day.

Fixed-income. Treasury moves helped equities. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged down on the week to roughly ~4.00% (-1 bp w/w), while the 2-year ticked up to ~3.48% (+2 bps w/w), modestly steepening 10s–2s. Rate-sensitive pockets in equities benefited from the softer long-end, and a cooler CPI print firmed market conviction in an additional Fed cut near-term.

Precious Metals and Industrial Metals

Gold’s sharp reversal after a blow-off peak. After printing an all-time high near mid-October, Gold (spot) slid hard during the week and ended meaningfully lower (~-8% w/w), stabilizing around the low-$4,000s per ounce into the weekend. Profit-taking, a firmer dollar, and improved risk sentiment in equities pressured safe-haven flows. Despite the setback, the multi-month uptrend remains intact on a longer horizon, but near-term momentum flipped defensive as traders reassessed the path for rates and tariffs.

Silver retraces from extremes. Silver (spot) pulled back alongside gold, cooling from record territory and settling near the high-$40s/oz by week’s end (roughly flat to modestly lower w/w). The drop reflected both the risk-on tone and technical mean reversion after a parabolic stretch. Given silver’s higher beta to both industrial demand and speculative positioning, volatility remained elevated.

Industrial metals firm. Outside precious metals, base metals were steadier. LME Copper (cash) rose on the week (~+1.8% w/w) on tight inventories and steady demand signals, while LME Aluminum (cash) advanced (~+2.6% w/w). The tone was supported by incremental China stimulus chatter and supply discipline, offsetting some macro uncertainty.

Crypto Asset

Bitcoin sets the pace. Bitcoin (BTC) extended its autumn rebound and finished the week higher (+5.34% w/w) around $114,472. Cooler inflation data and a gentle drift lower in the long end of the Treasury curve helped sentiment. Positioning also benefited from ongoing institutional adoption narratives and a constructive ETF flow backdrop.

Ethereum steadies into catalysts. Ethereum (ETH) advanced (+4.35% w/w) to about $4,158. While the relative performance gap to bitcoin remained, derivative positioning normalized after recent deleveraging. Developers and liquidity providers pointed to healthy on-chain activity, and macro-sensitive flows leaned constructive as yields eased slightly.

XRP outperforms on treasury-accumulation buzz. XRP posted a strong week (+10.65% w/w) near $2.65, helped by headlines around treasury accumulation initiatives and ongoing institutional adoption chatter. Volatility stayed high, but breadth of interest widened, lifting volumes and spot demand.

Solana and Cardano participate. Solana (SOL) gained (+6.51% w/w) to roughly $200, continuing to benefit from active-user growth, RWAs experimentation, and validator economics that have remained attractive into year-end. Cardano (ADA) rose (+4.37% w/w) toward $0.68, with sentiment improving alongside broader large-cap alt performance.

Notable market movers. Beyond the top cohort, selective large-caps with strong catalysts saw outsized swings as liquidity rotated quickly across narratives. However, leadership remained anchored by BTC and ETH, with SOL and XRP providing higher-beta amplification.

US Economic Data

Inflation cooler than feared. September CPI rose 0.3% m/m and 3.0% y/y, a touch below consensus, while core CPI also printed 3.0% y/y. Rent moderation and some goods disinflation offset gasoline pressures. The downside surprise, despite tariff noise, lowered near-term inflation anxiety and nudged pricing toward an additional quarter-point cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Labor signals mixed but stable. Timely official releases were constrained by the federal shutdown, yet available indicators suggested a still-resilient labor market with gradually softening edges. Claims held near historically low levels, and private-proxy reads implied slower but positive hiring into October. Wage pressures eased at the margin, consistent with the disinflation trend in shelter.

Financial conditions and the dollar. Long yields eased slightly on the week while the dollar stayed firm. The modest steepening in the curve translated into supportive financial conditions for risk assets, even as the broad dollar tempered commodity bids. Credit markets remained orderly with primary issuance brisk into month-end.

Outlook Next Week

FOMC decision in focus. The October FOMC meeting (decision mid-week) will dominate the macro tape. Markets lean toward an additional 25 bps cut given the softer CPI and an incrementally cautious growth tone. Forward guidance around balance-sheet runoff and the reaction function to a data blackout will be pivotal. A patient-but-easing message would likely anchor the front end and support risk assets; a hawkish tilt could re-steepen and spark factor rotation.

Mega-cap earnings and guidance. It is a blockbuster lineup: Microsoft (Q1 FY26), Alphabet, Apple (Q4), Amazon (Q3), and Meta (Q3) headline. AI capex trajectories, cloud growth cadence, ad-pricing power, and margin discipline will be the fulcrum for index-level moves. With indices at highs, beats may need clear FY26 guide-ups to extend multiple expansion; any capex “sticker shock” or tax-line surprises could revive dispersion and intra-day volatility.

Metals and macro catalysts. After this week’s reversal, gold and silver will trade highly sensitive to real-rate expectations and the dollar path post-FOMC. On the industrial side, copper and aluminum will key off China policy headlines and inventory prints. Energy price swings could add cross-asset volatility, but current positioning suggests dips in metals may continue to attract tactical buyers.

Crypto watch-list. For BTC and ETH, policy tone and liquidity conditions are the near-term drivers. A benign Fed message plus incremental ETF flow could extend the drift higher; conversely, a stronger dollar and a backup in real yields could compress multiples for risk assets broadly and cap crypto’s upside. Within alts, XRP and SOL retain momentum but are vulnerable to headline risk and profit-taking.