Aug 25–31, 2025
Stocks
Market movements:
U.S. equities were mildly positive for the week. The S&P 500 (+0.3% w/w) gained a little. The Nasdaq Composite (+0.6% w/w) outperformed slightly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.5% w/w) showed firmer breadth. Markets reacted to ongoing Fed commentary and fresh company news. Investors priced a modestly higher chance of policy easing later in the fall. Consequently, long-duration names held up better than cyclicals.
Sector and single-name drivers:
Technology and semiconductors provided much of the upside. Broadcom (+~13% w/w) retained strength from earlier guidance tied to AI infrastructure demand, which boosted semiconductor peers. Meanwhile, consumer discretionary names showed mixed results after several cautious company outlooks. For example, Lululemon (-~17.5% w/w) extended losses after a profit warning. Energy stocks were pressured by softer oil moves. Financials were quiet on the week as yields stabilized.
Fixed-income:
Yields drifted slightly lower across much of the curve. The 10-year Treasury (~4% area) eased, which supported equity multiples. Real yields compressed, and price sensitivity favored longer-duration growth. Investors remain focused on whether weakness in labour or growth readings will speed Fed easing. As a result, fixed-income positioning looked to be balancing carry and duration exposure.
Precious metals, industrial metals
Precious-metals flow:
Precious metals outperformed most risk assets. Gold (+~2–3% w/w) posted a clear weekly gain. Investors bought gold on a combination of softer macro signals and safe-haven demand. Silver (+~4–6% w/w) also rose and showed stronger percent gains than gold. ETF inflows and physical demand helped silver’s move. Traders cited lower real yields as a key technical help.
Industrial metals:
Industrial metals were subdued relative to precious metals. Copper (flat to modestly up w/w) and Aluminium (flat to modestly up w/w) showed limited directional movement. Demand indicators were mixed. China manufacturing data and logistical news influenced short windows of activity. Overall, cyclical metals tracked global growth sentiment rather than safe-haven flows.
Crypto Asset
Bitcoin:
Bitcoin (BTC, modestly up w/w) traded with limited volatility. It edged higher as risk sentiment improved slightly and macro easing priced in. ETF flows remained a background support. However, momentum was not as broad as during larger rallies earlier in the year.
Ethereum:
Ethereum (ETH, modestly up w/w) moved higher on renewed wallet activity and Layer-2 developments. Staking inflows were steady. Institutional interest remained visible. Still, ETH’s gains tracked general crypto market tone rather than idiosyncratic catalysts.
XRP:
XRP (modestly up w/w) showed steady moves but no breakout. Partnership news and settlement narratives provided occasional spikes. The token’s volume profile remained patchy compared with BTC and ETH.
Solana:
Solana (SOL, mixed w/w) had episodic strength on project announcements. Developer activity supported optimism. Yet the token’s week was choppy and sensitive to exchange flows.
Cardano:
Cardano (ADA, modestly up w/w) recorded incremental gains. Ongoing protocol upgrades and developer interest provided slow, steady tailwinds. Overall crypto sentiment was set more by macro than by single-token fundamentals.
US economic data
Employment and labour:
During the week several labour indicators showed emerging softness. Initial jobless claims ticked higher. Payroll trends were under renewed scrutiny. Markets interpreted the patterns as a mild loosening of labour market tightness. Consequently, traders increased the odds of policy easing further out on the Fed timeline.
Inflation and prices:
Price measures continued to show sluggish disinflation. Some categories remained sticky. Core price trends were still above the 2% target in many measures. This reality kept the Fed cautious in commentary. Thus, investors faced a two-way risk: inflation could re-accelerate, or the labour market could weaken further.
Market reaction:
After data flows, bond yields eased and gold rallied. Equities benefited from the lower-yield environment, especially long-duration names. However, the market remained sensitive to any stronger-than-expected inflation print that might reverse the move.
Outlook for the coming week
Data calendar:
In the coming week, pay attention to retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts. These prints will clarify whether consumer demand is holding. Also watch weekly jobless claims for persistent labour softness. If retail and industrial activity surprise to the upside, equity risk appetite may widen. Conversely, weakness would bolster the case for accelerated Fed easing.
Earnings and sector cues:
Key corporate reports include logistics, restaurants, and consumer staples. FedEx (FDX) will be watched for freight trends. Darden (DRI) offers insight into restaurant traffic. Results that beat expectations could extend cyclical rotation. On the other hand, misses would push investors back to defensives.
Tactical view:
Tactically, the bias favors tech and long-duration growth absent an inflation shock. Precious metals and selective crypto assets remain valid hedges. Risk managers should keep some cash or liquid hedges ready. Volatility may spike around major macro prints.