Jul 7–13, 2025

Stocks

Market movements:
U.S. equities finished the week with modest gains after an eventful stretch. The S&P 500 (+0.9% w/w) advanced. The Nasdaq Composite (+1.2% w/w) outperformed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.4% w/w) rose but underperformed the tech-led rally. The market’s tone was constructive as a combination of positive earnings and tepid inflation signals encouraged selective buying.

Sector dynamics:
Technology and communications services continued to lead. Semiconductors and cloud platforms outperformed. Cyclical sectors such as energy and materials were mixed. A few consumer and industrial names showed resilience and outperformed on strong earnings. In sum, investor preference remained tilted toward structurally growing franchises.

Single-name movers:
Several megacaps contributed materially to index performance. Nvidia (+~6% w/w) and other AI-related firms attracted most inflows. Microsoft (+~3% w/w) reported favorable cloud metrics and outperformed. Conversely, a global retailer disappointed and trimmed guidance, which weighed on peers and parts of the discretionary sector.

Fixed-income:
Yields were range-bound but with intraday swings. The 10-year Treasury (~3.85–3.95% area) traded in a narrow channel. Lower real yields supported long-duration equities while basing the rally in higher-quality names. Bond markets remained a barometer for the sustainability of growth outperformance.

Precious metals, industrial metals

Precious-metals:
Gold (+~1.6% w/w) strengthened on lower real yields and steady ETF demand. Silver (+~2.8% w/w) outperformed in percentage terms due to a mix of industrial hopes and safe-haven flows. Precious metals continued to serve as tactical hedges.

Industrial metals:
Copper (flat to slightly up w/w) and Aluminium (flat w/w) traded without strong conviction. China demand indicators continued to influence short-term trading. The base-metals complex favored clearer macro direction to drive a decisive move.

Commodities:
Oil traded on inventory data and regional supply cues. Agricultural commodities reacted to weather and logistics. Overall commodity flows remained measured and reflective of localized drivers.

Crypto Asset

Bitcoin:
Bitcoin (BTC, +~3% w/w) gained steadily as institutional flows and macro sentiment improved. BTC followed equity risk-on days closely but also showed resilience on weaker sessions. The token’s weekly move was constructive and less volatile than in prior fast-rising weeks.

Ethereum:
Ethereum (ETH, +~9% w/w) continued to show leadership. Strong staking activity and Layer-2 adoption supported demand. Futures markets indicated rising participation and tighter funding spreads. ETH benefitted from both macro tailwinds and protocol-specific catalysts.

XRP:
XRP (XRP, +~3% w/w) registered steady gains on partnership and utility narratives. Volumes were episodic, but general sentiment improved, helping price action.

Solana:
Solana (SOL, +~6% w/w) rallied on developer momentum and promising project launches. Intraday volatility remained elevated, and traders adjusted position sizes accordingly.

Cardano:
Cardano (ADA, +~2% w/w) advanced gradually as ecosystem upgrades progressed. ADA’s move was steady and supported by slow, structural flows rather than speculative spikes.

Crypto context:
Crypto flows continued to be driven by macro tails and token-specific activity. Institutional participation widened, and that aided larger-token performance.

US economic data

Inflation and prices:
Inflation indicators presented a mixed picture with some cooling in goods but persistent services pressures. Shelter costs were again a notable stickier component. The heterogeneity of inflation kept central-bank calculus complex and markets cautious.

Labour market:
Labour measures showed early softening in some internals, while headline unemployment remained stable. Wage growth moderated slightly in selected segments. Markets interpreted those signals as consistent with a gradual normalization rather than imminent distress.

Consumption & manufacturing:
Retail and manufacturing data painted a patchwork picture. Certain retail segments displayed resilience while others cooled. Manufacturing surveys showed regional variability. That resulted in selective rather than broad-based cyclical improvement.

Market reaction:
Given the mixed readings, precious metals and tech both found traction. Lower real yields supported the leadership of growth and AI-related names. However, volatility around future data releases remained elevated, prompting nimble positioning.

Outlook for the coming week

Important data & events:
Watch upcoming CPI components and weekly jobless claims for indications of where policy is heading. Retail sales and PMIs will provide fresh signals on demand and industrial momentum. Each of these prints could move yields and risk assets sharply.

Earnings and corporate cues:
Next week includes more consumer and industrial names reporting. Freight and restaurant results will be particularly informative about real-time consumption.

Tactical guidance:
Tactically allocate to quality growth while keeping hedges such as Gold and short-dated Treasuries. In crypto, focus on BTC and ETH for core exposure. Keep other tokens position-sized tightly given elevated volatility.

Risks to monitor:
An uptick in inflation would likely lift yields and pressure long-duration growth. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in employment could force a rapid re-pricing toward easier policy, which would change sector leadership dynamics. Geopolitical risks remain the wildcard for swift market moves.