Jun 30–Jul 6, 2025

Stocks

Market movements:
The holiday week printed modest risk-on returns. The S&P 500 (+1.4% w/w) advanced. The Nasdaq Composite (+1.9% w/w) led gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.8% w/w) rose modestly. Liquidity was lighter around the public holiday, which accentuated intraday moves. Nevertheless, tech and AI exposures continued to attract flows. Sentiment improved as some economic prints failed to signal sharp deterioration.

Sector dynamics:
Technology, software, and AI infrastructure led the advance. Some cyclicals bounced back after prior weakness. Financials rallied slightly with steadier-than-feared rates. Materials and energy were mixed given commodity-specific headwinds. Small- and mid-caps showed tentative recovery but remained behind large caps in performance.

Single-name themes:
Several mega-cap earnings beat expectations and lifted supplier groups. Nvidia (+~7% w/w) and related chip makers drew renewed interest. A consumer staples name reported solid results and outperformed, counterbalancing earlier retail softness. Overall, stock-specific news played an outsized role in daily moves.

Fixed-income:
Yields tightened slightly on the week but remained range-bound. The 10-year Treasury (~3.90–3.98% area) traded with light volume due to market holidays. Lower short-term real yields continued to be supportive of long-duration equities. That dynamic encouraged flows into tech and growth names even as risk managers kept hedges in place.

Precious metals, industrial metals

Precious-metals:
Gold (+~2.0% w/w) posted a steady advance on lower real yields and safe-haven flows. ETF purchases were notable, providing gold with support into the weekend. Silver (+~3.2% w/w) gained as traders rotated to industrial-proxy assets and hedges.

Industrial metals:
Copper (slight up w/w) and Aluminium (flat w/w) traded without strong directional conviction. News flow on China and inventories drove short-lived moves. In general, base metals required clearer industrial demand signals to sustain material rallies.

Energy & commodities:
Oil reacted to a mix of inventory releases and seasonal demand cues; overall the market saw modest volatility. Agricultural commodities reacted to regional weather patterns. Commodity flows were measured rather than decisive.

Crypto Asset

Bitcoin:
Bitcoin (BTC, +~5% w/w) posted a pronounced weekly gain. ETF inflows and macro risk-on helped lift BTC. Price action showed improved stability and higher participation from institutional windows. That encouraged broader altcoin buying during the mid-week sessions.

Ethereum:
Ethereum (ETH, +~12% w/w) surged on stronger staking flows and growing Layer-2 activity. Broader DeFi usage and optimistic developer metrics contributed to momentum. ETH’s rally outpaced BTC on a relative basis and drew larger spec allocations.

XRP:
XRP (XRP, +~4% w/w) rose modestly on continued utility and partnership news. Volume spikes accompanied selective headlines, but broad participation was less than for BTC and ETH.

Solana:
Solana (SOL, +~9% w/w) benefited from project launches and an upbeat developer cycle. Short-term volatility was high but persistent buyers lifted the token through the week.

Cardano:
Cardano (ADA, +~3% w/w) advanced as upgrades continued to roll out. ADA’s accumulation was steady rather than speculative.

Crypto summary:
The crypto complex enjoyed broader and stronger flows this week. Macro tailwinds and token-specific developments aligned to produce a clear risk-on advance in the space.

US economic data

Inflation & prices:
The latest prints continued to show a mixed inflation picture. Some categories cooled, while others — notably services and shelter — remained sticky. The heterogeneity kept the Fed’s timeline ambiguous. Investors reacted by tilting into growth on days with softer prints and hedging with gold on days with stronger prints.

Labour market:
Labour data showed modest cooling in internals while headline unemployment remained low. Wage growth showed signs of moderation in some sectors. Markets parsed these lines as early signs of labour normalization rather than an abrupt deterioration.

Consumption & industry:
Consumer spending remained constructive in travel and services. Manufacturing indicators varied regionally but did not signal a decisive contraction. The net effect was a cautiously optimistic picture for near-term growth.

Market reaction:
Given the mixed data, risk assets performed well on balance. Lower real yields and positive earnings allowed equities and crypto to rally. However, volatility persisted around any surprising macro prints.

Outlook for the coming week

Key events:
Important July-month releases arrive next week, including initial PMI reads and consumer confidence updates. These metrics will be watched for the sustainability of consumer spending and manufacturing momentum.

Earnings & corporate cues:
Expect a continued drip of retail, travel, and industrial results. Freight and restaurant names will help refine views on services spending. Results will determine whether cyclicals can regain traction.

Tactical view:
Favor quality growth and AI beneficiaries for tactical exposure. Maintain hedges via Gold and short-dated Treasuries. For crypto, keep ETH and BTC positions but reduce sizing on higher-volatility tokens.

Risks:
Upside inflation prints, geopolitical events, or sudden shifts in Fed commentary could quickly reverse sentiment. Conversely, sustained labour weakness could accelerate easing expectations and extend the rally.