Jun 9–15, 2025

Stocks

Market movements:
The week finished with moderate gains across headline U.S. indexes. The S&P 500 (+1.2% w/w) moved higher. The Nasdaq Composite (+1.9% w/w) outpaced the broader market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.6% w/w) lagged but still posted a gain. Early strength came from renewed appetite for tech and semiconductors. Later in the week, profit-taking trimmed some advances. Overall, the tape rewarded growth names while investors stayed cautious on cyclicals.

Sector dynamics:
Technology and AI-related sectors led the week. Semiconductors were strong after a series of bullish supply-chain checks. Software names climbed as several firms reiterated strong subscription metrics. Conversely, consumer discretionary underperformed after a handful of retailers reported softer comps. Financials were steady on mild moves in yields, and energy lagged on softer oil. Thus, leadership was concentrated, which produced strong headline returns but thin breadth beneath the surface.

Single-name drivers:
A few large caps drove much of the gains. Nvidia (+~6% w/w) continued to benefit from AI investment momentum. Broadcom (+~10% w/w) moved higher on an upgraded guide tied to data-center demand. At the same time, Lululemon (-~8% w/w) and similar retailers corrected after cautious commentary. Therefore, many portfolios showed strong performance from a small number of stocks while mid- and small-caps lagged.

Fixed-income:
Treasury yields drifted down modestly on the week. The 10-year Treasury (~4.05% area) eased as markets digested mixed data and slightly higher recession anxiety. Lower real yields supported long-duration assets and thus helped growth stocks. Nevertheless, intraday volatility in the rates market was meaningful. Traders repositioned around the next set of CPI-related prints. In sum, bonds were the dominant cross-asset influence on equity positioning.

Precious metals, industrial metals

Precious-metals:
Gold (+~2.5% w/w) performed strongly. Investors bought gold as a hedge amid sticky inflation signals. ETF inflows accelerated in midweek and added a mechanical bid. Silver (+~4–5% w/w) outpaced gold, helped by both industrial demand hopes and safe-haven buying. In combination, the yellow-metals complex benefited from easier real yields and periodic risk aversion.

Industrial metals:
Copper (flat to modest up w/w) and Aluminium (flat w/w) were range-bound with occasional spikes. China manufacturing signals produced short bursts of activity. Meanwhile, logistical and inventory stories created episodic demand-related moves. Overall, industrial metals lacked the consistent directional momentum of precious metals, since they are more directly tied to durable goods cycles.

Energy & commodities:
Oil prices held in a roughly tight range after a series of inventory releases. Agriculture and soft-commodity markets reacted to weather and logistical updates. Commodity ETFs saw mixed flows. Thus, while commodities reflected localized supply or demand news, they were not the main story for global risk appetite this week.

Crypto Asset

Bitcoin:
Bitcoin (BTC, +~3% w/w) posted solid weekly gains. Macro easing expectations and continued ETF activity supported price action. On risk-on days, BTC rose with equities. On risk-off intraday moves, BTC sold off faster than large-cap stocks. Nonetheless, weekly performance was positive as capital rotated back into risk assets overall.

Ethereum:
Ethereum (ETH, +~8% w/w) outperformed BTC substantially. Growing staking flows and Layer-2 volume increases bolstered sentiment. Also, several major DeFi projects reported rising activity. Consequently, ETH attracted both speculative and strategic buying during the week.

XRP:
XRP (XRP, +~3–4% w/w) posted measured gains. Partnership headlines and renewed cross-border payment narratives helped momentum. That said, XRP’s volume profile remained sporadic, and it did not lead the rally.

Solana:
Solana (SOL, +~6–7% w/w) moved higher on developer updates and liquidity infusions into key apps. However, volatility was elevated. Short-term traders used pullbacks to add positions, which amplified intraday moves.

Cardano:
Cardano (ADA, +~2–3% w/w) advanced gradually. Protocol updates and developer interest provided steady, structural tailwinds. Institutional inflows remained modest compared with BTC and ETH.

Crypto context:
The broad pattern showed a macro-driven expansion in crypto risk appetite. Lower real yields, improved ETF flows and select on-chain metrics supported gains. Token-specific catalysts delivered episodic outperformance but macro remained the largest driver.

US economic data

Inflation and prices:
Price measures again produced mixed internals. Shelter and services costs remained relatively sticky. Goods inflation cooled in some categories. The net effect kept headline CPI elevated relative to pre-pandemic norms. Policy watchers stressed that the path to 2% was uneven, which maintained an elevated premium on data releases.

Labour data:
Labour metrics softened slightly on internals. Initial jobless claims ticked up, and payroll internals hinted at lower hiring intensity. However, unemployment remained near multi-year lows in headline terms. Markets therefore parsed the labour picture carefully, trading on marginal signals that might nudge Fed timing.

Manufacturing and consumption:
PMIs and retail indicators offered signs of mixed momentum. Some manufacturing subcomponents improved, while others cooled. Retail sales showed pockets of resilience in services categories. Overall, the data portrayed a patchwork economy that was neither overheating nor collapsing.

Market reaction:
Given the mixed data, markets leaned toward a slower glide path for policy. That view lowered nominal and real yields in the short term and supported long-duration assets. Meanwhile, any stronger-than-expected inflationary print would still have the potential to rapidly re-price hawkishness.

Outlook for the coming week

Key calendar:
Next week’s releases include durable goods, regional manufacturing surveys and a fresh set of consumer confidence numbers. Durable goods will test business capital spending trends. Manufacturing surveys will give a lead on industrial momentum. Consumer confidence will gauge potential retail resilience. Each print could quickly move yields and risk assets.

Earnings & corporate cues:
A range of retail and industrial companies will report. Results from logistics and restaurant operators will provide near-term reads on consumption and supply chain conditions. Positive beats could spark broader cyclical participation. Conversely, misses would reweight portfolios toward quality and defensive sectors.

Tactical viewpoint:
Tactically, favor selective exposure to high-quality growth and proven AI beneficiaries. Allocate a small hedge to Gold and short-dated Treasury instruments to guard against yield surprises. For crypto, keep positions measured and emphasize BTC and ETH as the core holdings while sizing other tokens more conservatively.

Risk considerations:
Upside inflation surprises remain the principal risk to the rally. Higher-than-expected CPI prints would drive yields higher and pressure long-duration growth. Geopolitical or trade shocks could also cause fast risk-off moves. Conversely, persistent labour slack or a notable slowdown in activity could broaden easing expectations and further help growth assets and precious metals.