Jun 16–22, 2025

Stocks

Market movements:
The week closed with mixed-to-positive returns for U.S. equities. The S&P 500 (+0.7% w/w) eked out gains. The Nasdaq Composite (+1.1% w/w) outperformed on tech strength. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.2% w/w) was practically flat. Early in the week stocks rallied on strong AI narratives. Later, profit-taking trimmed some advances. Overall, investors focused on earnings and incoming data. That left sector rotation active across the tape.

Sector dynamics:
Technology and software led. Semiconductors and cloud infrastructure stocks drew most of the buying. Meanwhile, cyclical sectors were mixed. Financials moved sideways as yields settled. Energy struggled on softer oil snapshots. Retail and autos showed headline-day volatility tied to company-level updates. As a result, the market profile remained narrow despite the headline gains.

Single-name drivers:
A handful of large-cap moves drove index performance. Nvidia (+~4% w/w) and suppliers saw inflows tied to AI capex. Microsoft (+~2% w/w) reported stable cloud growth and outperformed. Conversely, a major retailer cut guidance and its stock fell sharply. That pressured broader consumer exposure. At smaller caps, weakness persisted, signalling that breadth was not yet robust.

Fixed-income:
Yields were steady-to-lower on mixed prints. The 10-year Treasury (~4.00% area) dipped modestly over the week. Lower real yields supported long-duration assets and tech multiples. However, intraday moves showed sensitivity to Fed-speak and CPI anticipation. Credit spreads were unchanged on balance, suggesting contained corporate stress. Consequently, fixed-income remained a core determinant for equity risk premia.

Precious metals, industrial metals

Precious-metals:
Gold (+~1.8% w/w) gained as yields eased and safe-haven demand rose. ETF inflows were steady mid-week, and that reinforced the move. Silver (+~3.0% w/w) outpaced gold due to a mix of safe-haven flows and industrial hopes. Physical buying in some markets added to the technical tailwind. Overall, precious metals provided a defensive complement to risk assets.

Industrial metals:
Copper (flat to +~0.5% w/w) and Aluminium (flat w/w) traded in tight ranges. China demand signals were mixed across the week. Supply disruptions were limited, which capped upside. Traders noted that base metals depend on durable goods momentum, which remained uncertain. Therefore industrial metals lagged precious metals on a relative basis.

Energy & commodities:
Oil prices hovered as inventory reports and seasonal demand cues balanced each other. Natural gas and agricultural commodities reacted to localized weather and logistics updates. Commodity ETFs saw small net flows. In short, commodities reflected a mix of micro and macro drivers and did not produce a single dominant theme.

Crypto Asset

Bitcoin:
Bitcoin (BTC, +~2.5% w/w) rose modestly in sync with risk-on days. ETF activity remained a key support factor. BTC reacted most to macro sentiment and large-cap equity moves. When equities dipped intraday, BTC often sold off first. Overall, weekly price action was constructive as flows slowly normalized.

Ethereum:
Ethereum (ETH, +~6% w/w) outperformed Bitcoin. Staking inflows and Layer-2 usage continued to gain traction. Positive on-chain metrics helped drive allocation into ETH. Institutional interest in ETH was visible through futures and OTC flow. Thus ETH captured more speculative and strategic capital during the week.

XRP:
XRP (XRP, +~3% w/w) posted steady gains. Partnership news and regulatory developments provided episodic support. Trading volumes were jumpy but generally constructive. Traders viewed XRP as a tactical exposure within a broader crypto positioning mix.

Solana:
Solana (SOL, +~5% w/w) advanced on developer and app-level updates. However, SOL’s weekly move was more volatile than BTC or ETH. Short-term traders exploited intraday swings. For longer-term holders, the move was a reflection of renewed ecosystem interest.

Cardano:
Cardano (ADA, +~2% w/w) edged higher as protocol progress continued. Developer activity remained steady, and that underpinned slow but positive accumulation. ADA’s move was gradual rather than dramatic.

Crypto context:
Macro fundamentals — lower real yields and ETF flows — dominated token moves. Idiosyncratic news produced spikes, but the broader trend was driven by macro and institutional flows. Overall, the week widened participation but did not yet produce euphoric breadth.

US economic data

Inflation signals:
Price readings showed uneven progress. Some goods categories cooled further. Service-sector inflation remained stickier. Shelter costs stayed elevated and were a recurring theme. The overall picture contributed to a cautious market assessment of the path back to 2%.

Labor market:
Labour metrics showed signs of moderating momentum. Initial jobless claims ticked up in parts of the month. Payroll internals suggested slightly reduced hiring intensity. Yet headline unemployment remained low. Markets therefore balanced a cautious macro outlook with the reality of still-tight labour conditions in many sectors.

Consumption and manufacturing:
Retail and manufacturing indicators produced mixed signals. Some forward-looking PMIs ticked lower; others remained in expansionary territory. Inventories and shipping data suggested inventory digestion in some sectors. Thus, the cyclical outlook stayed patchy rather than decisively strong or weak.

Market reaction:
The mixed data softened the probability of near-term steepening. That supported precious metals and long-duration equities. At the same time, volatility around releases kept traders nimble. Asset allocators favored selective exposure and hedges for event risk.

Outlook for the coming week

Key calendar:
Watch retail sales, regional manufacturing surveys, and consumer confidence releases. Retail sales will be pivotal for assessing consumer resilience. Manufacturing surveys will show whether production momentum is broadening or fading. Consumer confidence will inform near-term spending trends.

Earnings and events:
Several retailers and industrial firms will report. Freight and restaurant results will provide timely demand cues. Positive earnings would broaden participation beyond mega-cap growth. Misses would push flows into defensives.

Tactical stance:
Tactically, prioritize high-quality growth with durable cash flows. Keep a modest hedge via Gold and short-duration Treasuries. For crypto, emphasize BTC and ETH as core exposures. Size other tokens conservatively and reallocate on volatility.

Risks:
Upside inflation surprises remain the primary risk. That would lift yields and pressure long-duration growth. Conversely, a marked softening in services or labour would deepen easing expectations and push further risk-on. Geopolitical or trade developments could rapidly alter sentiment.