Aug 11–17, 2025

Stocks

Market movements:
S&P 500 (+2.4% w/w), Nasdaq Composite (+3.9% w/w) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.4% w/w) all closed the week higher. Traders bought risk after geopolitical headlines softened. In addition, several data points were mixed but not catastrophic. Consequently, equity breadth improved and large tech names outperformed. Overall, growth and AI exposures led the tape.

Sector and single-name drivers:
Technology & semiconductors led gains. In particular, infrastructure plays tied to Ethereum-related activity drew flows into chip suppliers. Meanwhile, some consumer names disappointed after earnings and trimmed guidance. For example, a soft consumer release caused localized sell-offs. At the same time, a major semiconductor supplier reiterated strong demand, which lifted peers. Thus investors rotated into high-quality franchises.

Fixed-income:
The 10-year Treasury (~4% area) eased modestly. Lower nominal yields supported equity multiples. Real yields compressed, which helped long-duration names. However, intraday volatility persisted around data and Fed comments. As a result, fixed-income remained the key cross-asset driver for risk premia.

Precious metals, industrial metals

Precious-metals rally:
Gold (+~2–3% w/w) rose on lower real yields and safe-haven bids. Investors bought gold as a hedge against policy uncertainty. Silver (+~4–6% w/w) outperformed in percent terms because of its industrial link and ETF flows. Thus, both metals received steady buying on the week.

Industrial metals:
Copper (modest up w/w) and Aluminium (flat to modest up w/w) traded in a narrow range. Demand signals from China were mixed. Supply notices and shipping updates caused brief volatility. Therefore, industrial metals tracked global growth narratives more than liquidity flows.

Crypto Asset

Bitcoin:
Bitcoin (BTC, +~2–4% w/w) consolidated near multi-month highs. ETF flows and a mild risk-on backdrop supported BTC. Yet profit-taking appeared on sessions when equities stalled. In short, BTC acted as the crypto market’s risk barometer.

Ethereum:
Ethereum (ETH, +~25.5% w/w) posted strong gains. Renewed staking interest and Layer-2 developments lifted ETH. Futures and funding spreads narrowed, which added momentum. Consequently, ETH drew capital that pushed related sectors higher.

XRP:
XRP (modest up w/w) recorded constructive volumes on occasional partnership news. Yet its rally was measured and did not spurt into an outsized move. Hence traders treated XRP as selective exposure.

Solana:
Solana (SOL, mixed to modest up w/w) saw episodic strength from developer announcements. Performance was choppy overall, however. Thus SOL’s upticks reflected localized optimism rather than broad market thrust.

Cardano:
Cardano (ADA, small gains w/w) advanced slowly as upgrades progressed. Developer activity provided steady tailwinds. Overall, ADA’s move was gradual and stable.

Crypto market context:
Macro themes dominated flows. Lower real yields and institutional rotation were the main drivers. Moreover, ETH’s surge reallocated capital to higher-beta projects. In sum, crypto gains broadened but stayed sensitive to macro headlines.

US economic data

Inflation signals:
Price indices showed stickiness in several categories. Core measures remained above target in many gauges. Thus, inflation persisted as a central upside risk. Policymakers continued to emphasise data dependency.

Labor and hiring:
Labor indicators showed signs of cooling in select internals. Initial claims ticked higher in pockets. Payroll internals hinted at softer momentum even as headline unemployment stayed stable. Consequently, markets raised the probability of easier policy later in the year.

Market reaction:
Following the data, bond yields eased and gold rallied. Equities benefited from lower real yields, especially long-duration growth names. Yet volatility rose around specific prints, reminding investors the outlook is still data-dependent.

Outlook for the coming week

Data calendar:
Watch retail sales, industrial production, and weekly jobless claims. These releases will clarify whether consumer demand holds. If retail and industrial prints surprise to the upside, equity risk appetite may broaden. Conversely, weaker prints would strengthen the case for accelerated Fed easing.

Earnings to watch:
Reports from logistics, restaurants and consumer staples will be meaningful. FedEx (FDX) will be watched for freight trends. Darden (DRI) will provide consumer spending clues. Positive beats could extend cyclical rotation. Conversely, misses would favor defensives.

Tactical view:
Absent an inflation shock, tactical bias favors selective growth exposure. Precious metals and selected crypto positions are useful hedges. Risk managers should keep liquidity buffers given compressed event timing.