Jul 28–Aug 3, 2025
Stocks
Market movements:
Markets finished the week with modest upside. The S&P 500 (+~0.8% w/w) rose. The Nasdaq Composite (+~1.1% w/w) outperformed slightly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+~0.5% w/w) gained less but still added to weekly returns. Investors bought into tech again. Corporate results and trade signals supported the move. Overall, the advance felt narrow but constructive.
Leadership and breadth:
A handful of big names accounted for much of the gains. Nvidia and other AI-linked stocks led sector performance. Small and mid-caps lagged. As such, breadth metrics lagged headline strength. Nonetheless, selective buying in cyclicals suggested pockets of confidence. Investors also rotated into chip suppliers on hardware optimism.
Company news flow:
Several earnings surprises boosted sentiment. Firms that beat expectations saw rapid share-price gain. Others that missed suffered on steep intraday drops. In short, company news drove short-term volatility more than macro alone. As a result, attentive stock selection paid off.
Fixed-income backdrop:
The 10-year Treasury (~4% area) held steady to slightly lower across the week. Lower real yields supported long-duration tech. Bond flows into high-quality paper reflected a modest demand for safe assets. At the same time, credit spreads remained stable, indicating contained stress in corporate credit.
Precious metals, industrial metals
Precious metals:
Gold (+~1–2% w/w) gained on lower real yields and risk hedging. Demand from ETFs and central-bank-related buyers added to momentum. Silver (+~2–4% w/w) outpaced gold percentage-wise. Silver benefited from both industrial demand hopes and safe-haven buying.
Industrial metals:
Copper (flat to slightly up w/w) and Aluminium (flat w/w) traded in narrow ranges. Demand signals were mixed. Supply disruptions were limited. Thus, base metals lacked the directionality seen in the precious sector.
Energy and commodities:
Oil moved with geopolitical and inventory cues. Agricultural commodities were reactive to weather and logistic news. Commodity ETFs recorded measured flows that mirrored investor tilt toward risk and hedges.
Crypto Asset
Bitcoin:
Bitcoin (BTC, modestly up w/w) held near recent highs. ETF flows and macro sentiment provided steady support. Correlation with equities rose on risk-on days. BTC acted as a barometer for broader crypto appetite.
Ethereum:
Ethereum (ETH, modestly up w/w) posted steady gains aided by Layer-2 traction and staking interest. Institutional participation remained a secondary, yet important, factor. ETH’s short-term moves were more muted than prior explosive weeks.
XRP:
XRP (modestly up w/w) recorded stable gains on partnership and payments narratives. Yet volumes did not indicate runaway momentum. Traders continued to treat XRP as tactical exposure.
Solana:
Solana (SOL, mixed w/w) posted episodic rallies tied to developer news. Nonetheless, macro forces were dominant for the week. SOL’s on-chain metrics kept investor interest alive for longer-term themes.
Cardano:
Cardano (ADA, small gains w/w) advanced gradually as upgrades progressed. The token’s steady move reflected slow but consistent development momentum.
Crypto context:
Macro and ETF flows dominated token action. Idiosyncratic project updates produced short-lived spikes. Overall, the week was constructive but not euphoric.
US economic data
Growth and consumption:
Retail sales and manufacturing readings showed mixed strength. Consumers remained active in selected categories. Service-sector activity continued to support broader growth. At the same time, inventories and shipping dynamics suggested a measured pace of expansion.
Inflation and prices:
Inflation indicators varied across components. Some price pockets remained elevated. Core measures stayed above target in several indices. The result was an ongoing debate about the path of policy.
Labor market:
Labor metrics were steady but showed early softening signs in some internals. Average hourly earnings growth moderated in select sectors. Weekly jobless claims merited monitoring but did not indicate a sudden turn.
Market reaction:
The mixed data set allowed markets to rally modestly. Lower real yields and positive earnings eased concerns. However, the path to sustained gains required broader breadth and clearer inflation progress.
Outlook
Data calendar:
Next week’s PMIs, retail sales and jobless claims will be important. Those reports will test whether the recent momentum can broaden. A strong retail print would catalyse cyclicals. A weak print would amplify policy easing bets.
Earnings focus:
Several consumer and industrial reports will provide fresh demand reads. Logistics and restaurant data will be particularly useful for tracking consumption and services.
Tactical viewpoint:
Favor selective growth names with durable franchises. Keep hedges such as Gold and a modest allocation to short-dated bonds. Monitor breadth and real yields closely; they will determine a sustainable market advance.