Jul 21–27, 2025

Stocks

Market movements:
The week ended with modestly stronger markets. The S&P 500 (+~1.0% w/w) climbed. The Nasdaq Composite (+~1.3% w/w) posted larger gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (~flat to +0.2% w/w) was steady. Several sessions printed fresh highs in pockets. Investor focus shifted to trade optimism and earnings beats. As a result, money rotated back into tech and AI leaders. At the same time, breadth remained a concern.

Sector rotation:
Tech outperformed on durable earnings beats. Semiconductors rallied on an optimistic demand outlook. Meanwhile, financials and energy lagged the rally. Consumer discretionary experienced mixed reactions to earnings and guidance. In aggregate, growth outperformed value, but several cyclicals showed resilience after strong single-stock prints.

Single-name themes:
Some megacaps delivered results that surprised investors positively. Those surprises lifted related suppliers and platform plays. Conversely, a subset of consumer firms missed estimates and trimmed guidance. Those misses produced rapid sector-specific weakness. Hence, stock-level moves mattered most for index direction.

Fixed-income behaviour:
The 10-year Treasury (~4% area) was fairly stable but with intraday swings tied to data. Lower real yields supported long-duration equities on strength days. On downside days, risk-off buying reduced yield volatility. The market continued to price a balanced path for Fed policy while awaiting clearer inflation signals.

Precious metals, industrial metals

Precious metals:
Gold (+~1% w/w) saw steady inflows. Investors used gold as a hedge against policy ambiguity. Silver (+~2–3% w/w) showed stronger percent gains owing to industrial uses and ETF flows. Overall, metals benefited from lower real yields and incoming risk.

Industrial metals:
Copper (slightly up w/w) responded to mixed global manufacturing. Supply and shipping updates moved prices in short bursts. Aluminium and nickel saw limited directional momentum. In sum, the base-metals complex reflected nuanced growth signals rather than a clear demand surge.

Crypto Asset

Bitcoin:
Bitcoin (BTC, modestly up w/w) recorded small gains. ETF flows and macro sentiment provided mild support. On risk-on days BTC rose with equities. On risk-off days BTC pulled back sooner than equities. Thus, BTC functioned as a sensitive risk gauge.

Ethereum:
Ethereum (ETH, modestly up w/w) climbed as staking inflows persisted. Layer-2 activity increased and narrowed funding spreads. Institutional buyers showed intermittent interest. In aggregate, ETH’s week was constructive but measured.

XRP:
XRP (flat to modest up w/w) posted occasional volume spikes. These occurred after specific partnership announcements. Yet XRP did not lead the market. Traders treated it as a targeted exposure.

Solana:
Solana (SOL, mixed w/w) was driven by project news. Developer grants and funding rounds triggered temporary rallies. However, broader macro flows governed the overall weekly tone.

Cardano:
Cardano (ADA, modest up w/w) moved slowly higher on developer updates. The token’s progress was steady but incremental.

Crypto context:
Crypto gains broadened, but macro headlines remained decisive. Institutional flows and ETF dynamics continued to shape larger moves.

US economic data

Macro picture:
Data reinforced the picture of a resilient but uneven economy. Manufacturing prints were mixed. Retail demand showed pockets of strength. Inflation indicators remained varied across categories. The result was a market that stayed optimistic but guarded.

Labor market:
Job metrics remained supportive but showed early signs of moderation in some metrics. Wage growth was uneven across industries. Weekly jobless claims were monitored closely for trend shifts.

Market reaction:
Lower real yields and better-than-feared earnings helped equities. Metals and crypto also benefitted from easier real yields. However, volatility spiked around key economic prints, reminding investors of the event-driven nature of the current environment.

Outlook

Key releases:
Watch retail sales, industrial production, and service-sector PMIs next week. These will test how durable consumer demand is. Also, track any Fed commentary for changes in language.

Earnings calendar:
Mid-cap and consumer names will report. Freight and retail results will be crucial for demand reads. Positive prints could extend cyclical participation. Negative surprises would tilt flows back to defensives.

Tactical stance:
Favor selectively owning high-quality growth, yet keep hedges such as Gold and short-dated Treasuries. Consider trimming momentum names that have run hard before recent earnings. Maintain flexibility around position sizing to manage event risk.