Stocks
Market overview:
U.S. equity markets extended their relief-rally into the week as investors priced an increasing probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts and bid technology and AI-linked names higher. The S&P 500 (+1.6% w/w), the Nasdaq Composite (+2.0% w/w) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.0% w/w) all finished the week higher. The advance was driven by a fairly narrow set of mega-cap technology and AI beneficiaries while more cyclical and interest-sensitive names showed patchier performance.
Standout single names:
Within the large-cap cohort a few single names stood out. Oracle (+~31–36% w/w) posted an outsized jump after an upbeat cloud/AI outlook and revenue guidance that surprised the market, a move that both lifted tech sentiment and pushed the indices to fresh record closes on a couple of sessions. Nvidia (+~6.5% w/w) and other chip/AI infrastructure names continued to trade strongly, validating the ongoing “AI trade” narrative. Tesla (+~12.9% w/w) and a handful of other high-beta names outperformed on idiosyncratic optimism about product pipelines and delivery prospects. Overall, earnings revisions for the quarter have been modestly positive for tech — a factor that, together with easier-rate expectations, underpinned the tape.
Fixed-income:
Fixed-income developments played a supporting role: benchmark Treasuries, notably the 10-year Treasury (~4% area), moved around as the market digested weaker labour data and raised the odds of Fed easing, which acted as a technical tailwind for equities, particularly long-duration growth names. That said, yields were volatile into the FOMC meeting and reaction to incoming data; market participants continued to watch real-rate paths and term-premium signals closely.
Precious metals, industrial metals
Precious-metals rally:
Precious metals were the clearest beneficiaries of the week’s macro backdrop. Gold (+~1–2% w/w) continued its break-out move and traded at fresh record territory, supported by sticky inflation dynamics, a weakening dollar and rising market expectations for Fed rate cuts; higher gold-ETF inflows reinforced the momentum. Silver (+~3–6% w/w) likewise remained strong on the precious-metals rally, with a larger percentage move reflecting silver’s smaller market base and stronger industrial demand component.
Industrial metals outlook:
Among industrial metals the picture was more mixed but constructive. Base metals showed interest as investors reassessed growth versus policy risks: Copper (flat to slightly up w/w) and Aluminium (flat to slightly up w/w) were range-bound to modestly firmer after data and positioning flows, partly supported by Chinese PMI/industrial updates and the persistent narrative of energy-transition demand. Industrials remain more sentiment-sensitive than the precious complex and are likely to be the first to show strain if macro growth worries intensify.
Crypto Asset
Bitcoin:
Bitcoin (BTC, +~3.5% w/w) rose from roughly the low-$112k area to close near ~$116k by mid-week. The token remains the primary market barometer for crypto risk appetite: it traded with relatively lower volatility than earlier in the year but benefited directly from the broader risk-on move and ETF flow dynamics that supported demand.
Ethereum:
Ethereum (ETH, +~9% w/w) outperformed Bitcoin during the week, moving from roughly $4.3k to the mid-$4.7k area. Renewed interest in staking, Layer-2 activity and institutional flows underpinned the rally; on-chain metrics and derivatives positioning indicated increased speculative and strategic positioning ahead of catalysts.
XRP:
XRP (XRP, +~6–8% w/w) enjoyed a positive week, advancing from about $2.9–3.0 to roughly $3.1. Momentum has been reinforced by continued institutional interest narratives, partnership headlines, and the post-litigation clarity that keeps XRP in focus for cross-border/settlement use cases.
Solana:
Solana (SOL, +~17% w/w) was a notable outperformer, rising from roughly $206 to highs in the low-$240s during the week. The move was driven in part by fresh institutional allocations and project-specific announcements that reinforced yield and treasury uses on the Solana chain, coupled with renewed retail enthusiasm around decentralized apps and NFT activity on the network.
Cardano:
Cardano (ADA, +~6% w/w) recorded steady gains as ecosystem developments and on-chain upgrades continued to attract attention; ADA moved from roughly $0.86 to about $0.92, supported by developer activity and gradual uptake of smart-contract use cases on the chain.
Broad crypto-market context:
Market movers beyond the token-level price action included exchange/issuance items and favourable headlines around crypto-adjacent listings that supported sentiment. Overall, this week’s crypto rally looked macro-driven — a broadening of gains across majors rather than a narrow, idiosyncratic spike — with real-time sensitivity to ETF flows, regulatory headlines and changes in risk appetite tied to macro moves.
US economic data
Inflation updates:
The economic calendar this week centred on the August Consumer Price Index and fresh labour-market signals, both of which were market-moving and created a complicated policy picture. The August CPI showed headline inflation at +0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, while core CPI (excluding food & energy) printed about +3.1% y/y. That modest acceleration from July complicated the Fed’s calculus: inflation remains above target even as other indicators cool, keeping upside risk to price pressures firmly on the table.
Labour-market signals:
On the labour front, initial jobless claims rose to levels not seen in several years (claims near 263k for the week ending 6 September), and seasonal revisions trimmed previously-reported payroll gains — a meaningful downward revision to job counts in the trailing 12-month window. The combination of softer hiring data and still-sticky inflation places the Federal Reserve in an awkward trade-off between supporting activity and guarding against a re-acceleration of prices. Markets took this mix to mean higher odds of easing in coming months while remaining attentive to upside inflation risks.
Market reaction (rates & real yields):
Treasury markets reacted with the 10-year Treasury (~4% area) trading around that level but showing intra-week declines as traders priced more Fed easing; volatility remained elevated into the FOMC meeting. Lower real yields and increased gold interest reinforced the week’s cross-asset dynamics and helped explain why long-duration growth names outperformed on easing expectations.
Outlook for the coming week
FOMC meeting — the headline event:
The Federal Reserve meeting on 16–17 September 2025 is the single biggest event. Markets price a high probability of a 25-bp cut; however, the Fed’s statement and Chair Powell’s press conference — especially any commentary on the inflation path, balance-sheet plans and forward guidance — will govern short-term yield and equity direction. Expect above-average headline sensitivity and potential intraday liquidity swings as market participants parse nuanced language about timing and sequencing of policy moves.
Macro releases to watch:
Key macro data include August retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and the weekly jobless claims series. Retail sales and industrial production will be watched for signs of whether consumer demand and manufacturing momentum are holding up. If retail sales surprise to the upside while jobless claims remain elevated, expect market confusion and intraday volatility as participants debate the appropriate Fed response.
Earnings and sector cues:
The corporate calendar is modest but meaningful for cyclical demand signals: FedEx (FDX), General Mills (GIS), Darden Restaurants (DRI), and Lennar (LEN) report during the week. FedEx will be monitored as a near real-time read on freight, inventories, and global demand; Darden offers a consumer-spending read through the restaurant lens. Positive surprises would reinforce the equity rally and cyclical recovery narratives; disappointments could prompt rotations back to defensives.
Crypto & commodity catalysts:
In crypto, ETF/listing flows and any regulatory headlines (domestic or international) could quickly re-rate altcoins; Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) will remain correlated with risk sentiment and real yields. For commodities, watch for geopolitical developments or China growth headlines that could push industrial metals differently from the precious-metals complex.
Key risks:
Upside inflation surprises or a sudden re-pricing higher in yields would remove the rate-cut bid and likely trigger a rotation out of long-duration growth names. Conversely, clear evidence of labour-market weakness coupled with benign CPI prints could drive a deeper risk-on leg and further compression of yields.